Perspectives · Our Thinking
Insight, not commentary.
How we underwrite, where we see structural mispricing, and the deals we developed at real cost and chose not to do.
The Firm ThesisAccelerating Transformative GrowthFor forty years, falling interest rates and rising multiples did the work of investing for everyone. That era is over. The returns of the next decade will be created — built inside companies through real growth — not harvested
Select theses.
Company theses, fund theses, and firm perspectives — including the transactions we developed at real cost and chose not to do.
All Sectors 18Industrials 2Real Assets 7Sustainable Energy 3Healthcare 1Digital Assets 1Marketing & AI 1Multi-Sector 3
18 PIECES
COMPANY · INDUSTRIALSThe Buried SmelterAmerica is structurally short aluminum, and no new smelter is coming. The fastest new source of domestic metal is the waste stream the industry has been burying for eighty years.COMPANY · SUSTAINABLE ENERGYThe Compounding SinkThe world needs renewable power that runs when the wind doesn't. Wood pellets can deliver it — but only for the producer who owns the lowest-cost ton. This is the thesis we underwrote in Brazil, where trees grow twice as fast, theCOMPANY · REAL ASSETSThe Subscription UnlockFor a century the car wash was uninvestable — episodic, weather-dependent, anonymous cash. Then operators put a membership on a card on file, and the business became legible to capital. Once it was financeable, it became *buildablFIRM PERSPECTIVE · MULTI-SECTORBought Before the Public CouldThe best private companies now create most of their value before they ever reach the public market. Owning that compounding means getting in through the side door — buying from insiders who want liquidity, the secondary market — aCOMPANY · HEALTHCAREThe Trust GapEighteen million prescriptions a year treat opioid addiction with a molecule that costs $50 a month — and roughly three in four patients fall out of treatment within six months. Infer closes that gap with a device that turns dailyFUND · INDUSTRIALSOwn the Theme, Short the CycleEvery few years the market rediscovers industrials — reshoring, electrification, defense, the power build-out behind AI. Capital floods the sector as if it were a single trade. It never is. The same secular force that lifts the grFUND · DIGITAL ASSETSThe Volatility DividendBitcoin has become an institutional asset class faster than any asset in modern memory. It also still moves like nothing else on earth. Most investors treat that volatility as the price of admission — a tax to be endured for direcFUND · REAL ASSETSThe Keep RateNo tax strategy has ever rescued a bad investment. But the wrong structure can quietly bleed a good one — a few points a year, compounding against you for a decade. We underwrite real assets on their fundamentals first. Then, withFIRM PERSPECTIVE · REAL ASSETSYou Can't Build the Competition for What We PaidIn the best neighborhoods of New York, San Francisco, and Miami, the return in luxury residential is not made on the way out — it is made at the front door, in the basis. Buy the best building in a supply-locked city at or below wFIRM PERSPECTIVE · REAL ASSETSYou Can't Build a Second OneOn the handful of islands where the truly wealthy actually go, the finest beachfront almost never sells — and when it does, it sets records. The only reliable way to own it is to build it. We develop the last available trophy siteCOMPANY · MARKETING & AIThe Hour TrapThe advertising holding company is breaking in public. AI is deflating the billable hour it was built on. That combination has put proven, cash-flowing agencies on sale at the exact moment a new operating model can transform theirCOMPANY · REAL ASSETSThe Parking AnnuityUrban parking is treated as a sleepy, transactional hard asset — a toll booth that takes cash and closes at night. It isn't anymore. COVID quietly converted it into a recurring-revenue business, and a thin layer of software plugsFUND · REAL ASSETSYou Can't Buy What You Can't Be ShownIn the center of Paris, the best buildings do not trade in an auction — they change hands inside a network, before anyone else knows they are for sale. The return in that market does not come from being the highest bidder. It comeFIRM PERSPECTIVE · MULTI-SECTORWhy We Partnered With an AI Venture StudioWe partnered with an AI-focused venture studio in 2021, before ChatGPT made artificial intelligence a consensus trade.
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◇ Perspectives · The Anti-Portfolio
The Sunk-Cost Antidote
The opportunities we developed at real cost, and chose not to do. An anti-portfolio of discipline: walking away is the most expensive judgment we sell.
COMPANY · SUSTAINABLE ENERGYThe Technology Worked. We Passed AnywayThe hardest "no" is the one where everything works. We backed a solar roof that beat the category benchmark — it made electricity and hot water from the same tiles — and the technology delivered. We passed anyway, because a superiCOMPANY · SUSTAINABLE ENERGYThe Cost-Curve TestWe saw hydrogen as a candidate secular winner and did the work to own it — assembling a three-company platform across production, storage, and demand. Then we ran it through the one test the theme could not pass: cost. This is whyCOMPANY · REAL ASSETSThe Zero-Based Re-UnderwriteWe had the market, the partner, and the product. We had a signed conviction and real money already spent. Then the demand curve that underwrote the whole thing fell by more than half in a single quarter — and the discipline that m